Shadow inventory holding back housing recovery

A number of analysts have speculated as to when the housing market recovery will occur, but one industry experts says he might have the answer.

Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Shaun Donovan revealed on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" that the nation's shadow inventory will hold back a more rapid recovery until it is more adequately addressed.

"The one place where we continue to see struggles is looking for a consistent strong recovery in house prices," said Donovan. "We're seeing that in a lot of markets. But in the most distressed markets … it's these foreclosures that are still coming on the market – what we call the shadow inventory – that are dragging down prices in a lot of places."

However, what Donovan had to say wasn't all negative, as he recognized the highest winter sales rate recorded in more than five years. In addition, he also pointed out that current homeowners falling into delinquency also dramatically plummeted. 

As the growth rate of the nation's shadow inventory continues to slow, the available distressed properties could provide some unique home buying opportunities for entry-level homebuyers.

Consumer sentiment toward housing market improves

Housing affordability continues to hover at an all-time high and a recent survey indicates consumers are catching on to the ideal buying conditions.

According to the survey from Fannie Mae, in March 73 percent of consumers said that now is a good time to purchase property, since home and rental prices are expected to surge by the end of 2012. This is a significant increase from the previous month when only 70 percent of Americans shared a similar sentiment.

"Conditions are coming together to encourage people to want to buy homes," said Fannie Mae vice president and chief economist Doug Duncan. "Americans' rental price expectations for the next year continue to rise, reaching their record high level for our survey this month.

Meanwhile, it was found that 37 percent of those polled feel the price of homes for sale will rise significantly by the end of the year. While this share is still somewhat low, it is a 5 percent increase from the previous month.

However, the mortgage giant found that 58 percent of Americans feel that the national economy is still headed in the wrong direction and 12 percent said they expect their financial situation to worsen as a result.

Property values stabilize after surge in home sales

The presence of distressed properties, including foreclosures, short sales and real estate-owned homes, continues to add downward pressure on overall home prices. However, some industry groups argue that prices could be showing signs of stability.

According to the most recent FNC Residential Price Index, home prices continued to trend lower during the second half of 2011 as foreclosures were conducted at an elevated rate. As a result, since July 2011, the values of non-distressed properties have declined by roughly 4.5 percent at an average of 1 percent every month.

Distressed property sales accounted for an estimated 27 percent of all transactions in February 2012. While this is still an elevated share, it is significantly less than the 32.2 percent share reported a year earlier.

At the end of last year, the report noted the median price discount of foreclosures amounted to 18.4 percent, making the prospect of owning a home more affordable to entry-level buyers. While major bargains can still be obtained, the discount was 1.8 percent higher during the previous three-month period and was 1.2 percent higher during the fourth quarter of 2010.    

However, as these affordable prices continue to attract a significant number of buyers, a recent report from CoreLogic says than an elevated sales rate is working to stabilize home prices.

In February, the firm found that overall home prices fell just 0.8 percent, compared to 2 percent just a year earlier. While this figure includes the prices of distressed homes, when excluding these properties, values actually appreciated 0.7 percent in February from the previous month.   

"The continued strength of sales activity and tightening inventories in many markets are early and hopeful signs that prices will continue to stabilize and improve in the coming months," said CoreLogic president and CEO Anand Nallathambi. "In fact, nondistressed home sale prices, which represent two-thirds of all sales, have appreciated by just over 1 percent since the beginning of the year."

While overall home prices continued to edge lower, the pace is much slower than it has been in previous years. As a result, the Mortgage Bankers Association reported an increase in home loan activity during the week ending March 30 of buyer capitalized on bargain prices to become homeowners. 

The industry group's Weekly Application survey found that application activity surged 4.8 percent from the previous week. In addition, as mortgage rates continue to hover near all-time lows, the refinance share of activity spiked 4 percent. 

"Applications to buy a home picked up last week, and are running more than 2 percent above the level reported at this time last year," said MBA vice president of research and economics Michael Fratantoni. "Home purchase applications for conventional loans are now about 10 percent above last year’s level. Applications for government loans increased by more than 10 percent over the week, for both purchase and refinance, likely spurred by borrowers seeking to apply before scheduled increases in FHA mortgage insurance premiums at the beginning of April."

Meanwhile, in the wake of the surge in application activity, the average interest rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage with a conforming loan balance of less than $417,500 dipped to 4.16 percent. The previous week the rate stood at 4.23 percent. In addition, the report found that the rate for a 30-year FRM jumbo loan also declined, falling to 4.46 percent.